Global Warming Research
Greenhouse Gases Have Little Impact in Tropical Storms and Hurricane Numbers
NOAA, May 19, 2008
A new model simulation of Atlantic hurricane activity for the last two decades of this century projects fewer hurricanes overall, but a slight increase in intensity for hurricanes that do occur. Hurricanes are also projected to have more intense rainfall, on average, in the future. The findings are reported in a study by scientists at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., published online on May 18 in Nature Geoscience.
No Warming Forecasted for the Next Decade
Keenlyside et al, Nature, May 1, 2008
They forecast the following: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.
Global and Regional Climate Changes due to Black Carbon
Ramanthan and Carmichael Review Article, March 23, 2008
Black carbon, a form of particulate air pollution most often produced from biomass burning, cooking with solid fuels and diesel exhaust, has a warming effect in the atmosphere three to four times greater than prevailing estimates.
What To Do About Climate Change
Indur M. Goklany, February 5, 2008
Analysis using both the Stern Review and the fast-track assessment reveals that notwithstanding climate change, for the foreseeable future, human and environmental well-being will be highest under the “richest-but-warmest” scenario and lower for the poorer (lower-carbon) scenarios. The developing world’s future wellbeing should exceed present levels by several-fold under each scenario, even exceeding present wellbeing in today’s developed world under all but the poorest scenario. Accordingly, equity-based arguments, which hold that present generations should divert scarce resources from today’s urgent problems to solve potential problems of tomorrow’s wealthier generations, are unpersuasive.
U.S. Senate Report: Over 400 Prominent Scientists Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims in 2007
U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (Minority), 20 December 2007
Over 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries recently voiced significant objections to major aspects of the so-called "consensus" on man-made global warming. These scientists, many of whom are current and former participants in the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), criticized the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore.
Antarctic Temperatures: 1958-2002
CO2 Science, 19 December 2007
From approximately 1970 to the end of the record, temperatures of the region simply fluctuated around an anomaly mean of about 0.12°C, neither warming nor cooling over the final 32 years of the record.
Open Letter from over 100 Scientists to the United Nations, warning the UN that attempts to control the climate are 'futile'
13 December 2007
This letter was signed by renowned scientists such as Dr. Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists; MIT atmospheric scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen; UN scientist Dr. Vincent Gray of New Zealand; World authority on sea level Dr. Nils-Axel Morner of Stockholm University; Physicist Dr. Freeman Dyson of Princeton University; Former UN IPCC reviewer Geologist/Geochemist Dr. Tom V. Segalstad, head of the Geological Museum in Norway; and Dr. Edward J. Wegman, of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences.
The Civil Society Report on Climate Change
The Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change, 27 November 2007
A new Report produced by a coalition of over 40 prominent civil society organisations from 33 countries says that governments should reject calls for a post-Kyoto treaty (“Kyoto 2”) with binding limits on carbon emissions. The report says a better strategy would be to focus on removing barriers to adaptation, such as subsidies, taxes and regulations that hinder technological innovation and economic growth.
Chapters:
"Human Ecology and Human Behavior: Climate change and health in perspective"
Paul Reiter
"Death and Death Rates due to Extreme Weather Events: Global and U.S. Trends, 1990-2006"
Indur M Goklany
"Weathering Global Warming in Agriculture and Forestry: It can be done with free markets"
Douglas Southgate and Brent Sohngen
"The Political Economy of Global Warming, Rent Seeking and Freedom"
Wolfgang Kasper
Dr.John R.Christy, Written Testimony before the U.S. Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee
14 November 2007
Dr. Christy is a professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Alabama-Huntsville, Director of the Earth System Science Center, and State Climatologist.
Nasa Sees Arctic Ocean Circulation do an About-Face
NASA Press Release, 13 November 2007
A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales. The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming.
Jim Connaughton, White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), Power Point
8 November 2007
Demonstrates that under current and foreseeable technologies, this goal cannot be accomplished without crippling the world’s developing country economies.
Iain Murray “Let Cooler Heads Prevail"
Presentation before Young Britons’ Foundation, 27 October 2007
The Greenland-Antarctica Melting Problem Does Not Exist
Cliff Ollier, School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, CCNet, 31 October 2007
Hansen is a modeller, and his scenario for the collapse of the ice sheets is based on a false model. Hansen has a model of an ice sheet sliding along an inclined plane, lubricated by meltwater, which is itself increasing because of global warming. The same model is adopted in many copy-cat papers. Hanson’s model, unfortunately, includes neither the main form of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, nor an understanding of how glaciers flow.
Thirty Five Inconvenient Truths: The Errors in Al Gore’s Movie
Lord Christopher Monkton, Science and Public Policy Institute, 19 October 2007
We now itemize 35 of the scientific errors and exaggerations in Al Gore’s movie. The first nine were listed by the judge in the High Court in London in October 2007 as being “errors.” The remaining 26 errors are just as inaccurate or exaggerated as the nine spelt out by the judge, who made it plain during the proceedings that the Court had not had time to consider more than these few errors. The judge found these errors serious enough to require the UK Government to pay substantial costs to the plaintiff.
European Progress on Reducing Global Warming Emissions: A View from Italy
Transcript of Speech by Benedetto Della Vedova, Italian MP, 9 October 2007
UK Court Ruling on Al Gore's Errors in An Inconvenient Truth
Justice Burton, Royal Courts of Justice, 10 October 2007
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green, Energy and Environment (forthcoming)
Authors audited the forecasting process used by the IPCC WGI Report and found that it violated 72 of 89 principles of forecasting. From a forecasting standpoint, authors conclude that claims the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying it will get colder.
Global Warming: Man Made, or Natural?
Dr. Fred Singer, Texas Public Policy Foundation, 1 October 2007
“Human activities are not influencing the global climate in a perceptible way,” said Dr. S. Fred Singer, professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia and a distinguished research professor at George Mason University. “Climate will continue to change, as it always has in the past, warming and cooling on different time scales and for different reasons, regardless of human action."
Hysteria’s History: Environmental Alarmism in Context
Amy Kalieta, Gregory Forbes, Pacific Research Institute, 21 September 2007
The tragedy of environmental hysteria is twofold: it is often a detrimental perversion of the truth— and it has all happened before.
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists vs Scientific Forecasting
Scott Armstrong, Frontiers of Freedom, 17 September 2007
The Center for Science and Public Policy recently held an event in Washington DC in which one of the world's leading authorities on scientific forecasting told the audience that the projections of future temperatures issued by the IPCC violated most rules of scientific forecasting. A forecast of "no change" in the global temperature would be more valid.
The Adverse Impacts of Cap and Trade Regulations
Aurthur Laffer & Wayne Winegarden, September 2007
Famed economist Arthur Laffer says in a new study that implementing a cap-and-trade system for managing greenhouse gas emissions could cost the average family $10,800 in lost income. Laffer likens the proposed global warming policy to a 1970s-era energy crunch.
500 Scientists with Documented Doubts of Man Made Global Warming Scares
Dennis T Avery, Hudson Institute, 14 September 2007
The following list includes more than 500 qualified researchers, their home institutions, and the peer-reviewed studies they have published in professional journals providing historic and/or physical proxy evidence that:
Biofuels: Is the Cure Worse than the Disease?
Richard Doornbosch and Ronald Steenblik, OECD, 11 September 2007
OECD’s determines that biofuels benefits not commensurate with their environmental and humanitarian costs.
Europe’s Dirty Little Secret: Why the EU Emissions Trading Scheme isn’t Working
Open Europe, August 2007
The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is supposed to be the EU’s main policy tool for reducing emissions. But so far, it has been an embarrassing failure.
A Reality Check on Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions in California, Oregon, the Northeast and Europe
American Council for Capital Formation, August 2007
What progress actually has been made in avoiding greenhouse gas emissions in the northeast U.S. (RGGI states), along the West Coast in the U.S., and in Europe. This August 2007 publication by the American Council for Capital Formation looks into the question.
The Challenge of Global Warming: Economic Models and Environmental Policy
Richard Nordhous, 24 July 2007
In a landmark study that should shift the terms of the debate over what to do about global warming forever, Yale economist William Nordhaus has found that the favored programs of Al Gore and Sir Nicholas Stern would cost the world more than unmitigated global warming.
Positive Environmentalism, a Convenient Truth
Tom Clogherty, Globalisation Institute, 2007
While many proposed solutions to climate change have the right intentions, they will ultimately fail to protect the planet. Instead, policymakers need to adopt "positive environmentalism".
Carbon Trade Scheme 'Is Failing'
Julian O'Halloran, BBC News, 5 June 2007
An investigation by BBC Radio concludes that the European Union's carbon trading scheme has increased electricity bills, given a windfall to power companies, and failed to cut greenhouse gases.
Working Group (WG) III’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): Be Sure to Read the Fine Print
Marshall Institute, 31 May 2007
The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of Working Group III (Mitigation), released on May 4, is available on the IPCC website, www.ipcc.ch. In an effort to assist the public’s evaluation of the strong claims made in the SPM and the subsequent use of those claims by the media and public policymakers, this review evaluates WG III’s conclusions.
Evaluating Working Group (WG) II’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
Marshall Institute, 9 May 2007
Evaluating Working Group (WG) II’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) reviews and critiques the findings contained in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of Working Group (WG) II’s contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that are likely to attract the most attention.
Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 27 April 2007
Carbon caps in a scenario where the U.S. matches the carbon reductions of other developed nations will cost 1.45 percent of total U.S. welfare by 2050. A more aggressive strategy where the U.S. takes on more of the burden – a scenario that has been demanded under the Kyoto Protocol, for example – would cost 1.79 percent of total U.S. welfare by 2050. For this cost, less then 0.5 degrees Celsius of warming will mitigated.
Trade-Offs in Allocating Allowances for CO2 Emissions
Congressional Budget Office Staff, CBO, 25 April 2007
CBO study determines that costs of greenhouse gas emissions reduction policy would be regressive.
Scientific Consensus on Global Warming: Results of an international survey of climate scientists
Joseph Bast and James M. Taylor, Heartland Institute, 3 April 2007
This booklet summarizes the results of international surveys of climate scientists conducted in 1996 and 2003 by two German environmental scientists, Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch.
Al Gore’s Science Fiction
Marlo Lewis, 16 March 2007
An Inconvenient Truth (AIT), Al Gore’s film and book on “The planetary emergency of global warming and what can be done about it,” purports to be a non-ideological exposition of climate science and moral common-sense. In reality, AIT is a lawyer’s brief for global warming alarmism and energy rationing. The only facts and studies Gore considers are those convenient to his scare-them-green agenda. And in numerous instances, he distorts the evidence he cites.
Working Group (WG) I's Contribution to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): A Critique
Marshal Institute, 1 March 2007
This report reviews and critiques the findings contained in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of Working Group (WG) I’s contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that are likely to attract the most attention.
Adaptive Management of Climate Change Risks
Indur Goklany, The Fraser Institute, March 1, 2007
Through the next few decades, reduction of climate-related risks can be achieved most cost-effectively by reducing vulnerability to climate-sensitive threats that might be exacerbated by climate change rather than through any significant emission reduction.
Fred Smith Testimony before Senate EPW Panel
13 February 2007
CEI President Fred Smith testifies before Congress to discuss the unintended consequences of a cap and trade emissions reduction policy.
Is there a case for aggressive, near-term mitigation of greenhouse gases? A critique of the Stern Report
Robert O. Mendelsohn, Regulation, Winter 2006-7
The author exposes the mistaken assumptions adopted in the influential Stern Report, which had concluded that the costs of the impacts of global warming will be far higher than the costs of stopping global warming.
The Economic Impacts of Coal Utilization and Displacement in the Continental United States, 2015
Adam Z Rose, Dan Wei, The Center for Energy and Economic Development, Inc., July 2006
Our analysis shows that, in 2015, U.S. coal production, transportation and consumption
for electric power generation will contribute more than $1 trillion (2005 $) of gross output directly and indirectly to the economy of the lower-48 United States. Based on an average of two energy price scenarios summarized below, we calculate that $362 billion of household income and 6.8 million U.S. jobs will be attributable to the production, transportation and use of domestic coal to meet the nation’s electric generation needs.
The Stern Review: A Dual Critique
Part I: The Science The Stern Review: A Dual Critique: Part I: The Science (by Robert M. Carter, C. R. de Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, David Holland & Richard S. Lindzen), and Part II: Economic Aspects (by Ian Byatt, Ian Castles, Indur M. Goklany, David Henderson, Nigel Lawson, Ross McKitrick, Julian Morris, Alan Peacock, Colin Robinson & Robert Skidelsky)
World Economics v7 i4 (2006): 165-232.
A number of prominent scholars dissect the inaccuracies of the Stern Report.
The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol
International Council for Capital Formation, 1 November 2005
The Kyoto Protocol entered into force as an international treaty for those countries that had ratified it on February 16, 2005. The International Council for Capital Formation (ICCF) has published a series of in-depth studies, analysing the broader economic repercussions of adopting Kyoto.
Is a Richer but Warmer World Better than a Poorer but Cooler World
Indur Goklany, US Dept. of the Interior, 21 September 2005
Greater economic growth could lead to greater greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously enhancing various aspects of human well-being and the capacity to adapt to climate change. This begs the question as to whether and, if so, for how long would a richer-but-warmer world be better for well-being than poorer-but-cooler worlds.
Tackling Poverty is Best Response to Climate Variance
Julian Simon, UK Parliament Select Committee on Economic Affairs, 21 June 2005
Adaptive, sustainable development can come only through the adoption of institutions that enable people to engage in economic activities that create wealth and lead to technological progress. Policies that rely on these institutions provide the best way to deal with an uncertain climate future.
“A Climate Policy for the Short and Medium Term: Stabilization or Adaptation?”
Indur Goklany, Energy & Environment 16(2005): 667-680.
An evaluation of the global impacts ofclimate change under various mitigation scenarios (including CO2 stabilization at 550 and 750 ppm) coupled with an examination of the relative costs associatedwith different schemes to either mitigate climate change or reduce vulnerability tovarious climate-sensitive hazards (namely, malaria, hunger, water shortage, coastalflooding, and losses of global forests and coastal wetlands) indicates that, at leastfor the next few decades, risks and/or threats associated with these hazards would be lowered much more effectively and economically by reducing current and future vulnerability to those hazards rather than through stabilization.
Launching the Counter-Offensive: A Sensible Sense of Congress Resolution on Climate Change
Marlo Lewis, CEI Issue Analysis, 16 November 2004
The battle over climate policy is a protracted struggle. To win it, the friends of economic liberty, scientific inquiry, and affordable energy must advance their own vision and compel alarmists to react to it.
The Science Isn’t Settled: The Limitations of Global Climate Models
Kenneth Green, The Frasier Institute, 7 July 2004
Computerized models of the Earth's climate are at the heart of the debate over how policymakers should respond to climate change. Numerous analysts have pointed out, however, that many of the assumptions used in modeling the climate are of dubious merit, with biases that tend to project catastrophic warming.
The Perils of "Soft" And Unratified Treaty Commitments
Chris Horner, CEI Issue Analysis, 1 December 2003
This paper expands upon the discussion of Vienna and customary law as they apply to the U.S.’s Kyoto signature, in “Modern Developments in the Treaty Process”, Christopher C. Horner (Federalist Society)
The Anti-Energy Litigation Of The State Attorneys General: From Junk Science To Junk Law
Marlo Lewis, CEI Issue Analysis, 4 March 2003
On January 30, 2003, the Attorneys General (AGs) of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Maine filed a notice of intent to sue U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Christine Todd Whitman unless she agrees to propose mandatory controls on emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal greenhouse gas targeted by the non-ratified Kyoto climate treaty. Far from it being EPA’s duty to regulate CO2, EPA has no power to do so.
The Bankruptcy of Collectivist Environmental Policy
Fred Smith, CEI Issue Analysis, 4 October 2002
The frontal socialist assault on economic liberty has been thwarted although mixed economy advocates still dominate most policy debates. But these gains are now threatened by the widespread belief that classical liberal approaches cannot address environmental concerns.
Tax Reform is Green, "Green" Taxes Aren't
George Pieler, CEI Issue Analysis, 14 November 2000
The call for "green" taxes is an unfortunate turn of events for both tax and environmental policy. Green tax proposals confuse means with ends and blur the objectives of both "true" tax reformers and sincere environmentalists. The imposition of special tax penalties or incentives designed to reduce pollution is not an efficient environmental strategy.
Greenhouse Policy Without Regrets: A Free Market Approach to the Uncertain Risks of Climate Change
Jonathan Adler, CEI Issue Analysis, 14 July 2000
Currently proposed precautionary measures, such as the Kyoto Protocol, call for government interventions to control greenhouse-gas emissions and suppress the use of carbon-based fuels. Such policies would impose substantial costs and yet do little, if anything, to reduce the risks of climate change.
Weathering Climate Change: Some Simple Rules to Guide Adaptation Decisions’
Fankhauser,S., J.B. Smith and R.S.J. Tol, Ecological Economics, 30 (1999): 67-78.
Author discusses some of the elements that would characterize an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate
“Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth and Free Trade.”
Indur Goklany, Climatic Change 30 (1995): 427-449.
Author proposes 3 broad interrelated strategies – stimulating technological change, sustainable economic growth and free, unsubsidized trade, to enhance future adaptability to climate change.